Carbon Footprint of Lithium-Ion Battery Manufacturing: Measuring the Net Global Warming Impact of Localized Mineral Extraction vs. Shipping Supply Chains

Abstract

The global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy storage has driven unprecedented demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). The environmental integrity of this transition, however, depends on the carbon burden embedded in battery supply chains. This study comparatively evaluates two supply-chain configurations: a globalized model in which raw minerals move across continents for processing and assembly, and a localized model based on near-sourced extraction and regionally co-located manufacturing. A process-based life cycle assessment (LCA), aligned with ISO 14040/44 principles, is applied within a cradle-to-gate system boundary and expressed as kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour (kg CO2-eq/kWh) of finished NMC-811 cell capacity. The analysis preserves common material, logistics, processing, and grid-intensity assumptions across the scenarios. Results show that transport distance alone does not determine the lowest-carbon supply chain. The globalized configuration records 76.20 kg CO2-eq/kWh, while localization under a high-fossil electricity grid increases the footprint to 78.20 kg CO2-eq/kWh. In contrast, localization combined with a decarbonized regional grid reduces the footprint to 19.40 kg CO2-eq/kWh, a 74.5% reduction relative to the globalized baseline. The findings indicate that electricity-grid carbon intensity during refining, precursor synthesis, and cell assembly can outweigh the emissions saved by shortening transport routes. For corporate decision-makers, localization should therefore be evaluated together with energy sourcing, supplier-grid characteristics, and clean-power access rather than treated as an inherently low-carbon strategy.